Machine Learning Approach for the Early Prediction of the Risk of Overweight and Obesity in Young People

Obesity is a major global concern with more than 2.1 billion people overweight or obese worldwide which amounts to almost 30% of the global population. If the current trend continues, the overweight and obese population is likely to increase to 41% by 2030. Individuals developing signs of weight gain or obesity are also at a risk of developing serious illnesses such as type 2 diabetes, respiratory problems, heart disease and stroke. Some intervention measures such as physical activity and healthy eating can be a fundamental component to maintain a healthy lifestyle. Therefore, it is absolutely essential to detect childhood obesity as early as possible. This paper utilises the vast amount of data available via UK’s millennium cohort study in order to construct a machine learning driven model to predict young people at the risk of becoming overweight or obese. The childhood BMI values from the ages 3, 5, 7 and 11 are used to predict adolescents of age 14 at the risk of becoming overweight or obese. There is an inherent imbalance in the dataset of individuals with normal BMI and the ones at risk. The results obtained are encouraging and a prediction accuracy of over 90% for the target class has been achieved. Various issues relating to data preprocessing and prediction accuracy are addressed and discussed

Inferring stabilizing mutations from protein phylogenies : application to influenza hemagglutinin

One selection pressure shaping sequence evolution is the requirement that a protein fold with sufficient stability to perform its biological functions. We present a conceptual framework that explains how this requirement causes the probability that a particular amino acid mutation is fixed during evolution to depend on its effect on protein stability. We mathematically formalize this framework to develop a Bayesian approach for inferring the stability effects of individual mutations from homologous protein sequences of known phylogeny. This approach is able to predict published experimentally measured mutational stability effects (ΔΔG values) with an accuracy that exceeds both a state-of-the-art physicochemical modeling program and the sequence-based consensus approach. As a further test, we use our phylogenetic inference approach to predict stabilizing mutations to influenza hemagglutinin. We introduce these mutations into a temperature-sensitive influenza virus with a defect in its hemagglutinin gene and experimentally demonstrate that some of the mutations allow the virus to grow at higher temperatures. Our work therefore describes a powerful new approach for predicting stabilizing mutations that can be successfully applied even to large, complex proteins such as hemagglutinin. This approach also makes a mathematical link between phylogenetics and experimentally measurable protein properties, potentially paving the way for more accurate analyses of molecular evolution

Detection of Resistance Mutations to Antivirals Oseltamivir and Zanamivir in Avian Influenza A Viruses Isolated from Wild Birds

The neuraminidase (NA) inhibitors oseltamivir and zanamivir are the first-line of defense against potentially fatal variants of influenza A pandemic strains. However, if resistant virus strains start to arise easily or at a high frequency, a new anti-influenza strategy will be necessary. This study aimed to investigate if and to what extent NA inhibitor–resistant mutants exist in the wild population of influenza A viruses that inhabit wild birds. NA sequences of all NA subtypes available from 5490 avian, 379 swine and 122 environmental isolates were extracted from NCBI databases. In addition, a dataset containing 230 virus isolates from mallard collected at Ottenby Bird Observatory (Öland, Sweden) was analyzed. Isolated NA RNA fragments from Ottenby were transformed to cDNA by RT-PCR, which was followed by sequencing. The analysis of genotypic profiles for NAs from both data sets in regard to antiviral resistance mutations was performed using bioinformatics tools. All 6221 sequences were scanned for oseltamivir- (I117V, E119V, D198N, I222V, H274Y, R292K, N294S and I314V) and zanamivir-related mutations (V116A, R118K, E119G/A/D, Q136K, D151E, R152K, R224K, E276D, R292K and R371K). Of the sequences from the avian NCBI dataset, 132 (2.4%) carried at least one, or in two cases even two and three, NA inhibitor resistance mutations. Swine and environmental isolates from the same data set had 18 (4.75%) and one (0.82%) mutant, respectively, with at least one mutation. The Ottenby sequences carried at least one mutation in 15 cases (6.52%). Therefore, resistant strains were more frequently found in Ottenby samples than in NCBI data sets. However, it is still uncertain if these mutations are the result of natural variations in the viruses or if they are induced by the selective pressure of xenobiotics (e.g., oseltamivir, zanamivir)

Human Alpha Defensin 5 Expression in the Human Kidney and Urinary Tract

The mechanisms that maintain sterility in the urinary tract are incompletely understood. Recent studies have implicated the importance of antimicrobial peptides (AMP) in protecting the urinary tract from infection. Here, we characterize the expression and relevance of the AMP human alpha-defensin 5 (HD5) in the human kidney and urinary tract in normal and infected subjects.Using RNA isolated from human kidney, ureter, and bladder tissue, we performed quantitative real-time PCR to show that DEFA5, the gene encoding HD5, is constitutively expressed throughout the urinary tract. With pyelonephritis, DEFA5 expression significantly increased in the kidney. Using immunoblot analysis, HD5 production also increased with pyelonephritis. Immunostaining localized HD5 to the urothelium of the bladder and ureter. In the kidney, HD5 was primarily produced in the distal nephron and collecting tubules. Using immunoblot and ELISA assays, HD5 was not routinely detected in non-infected human urine samples while mean urinary HD5 production increased with E.coli urinary tract infection.DEFA5 is expressed throughout the urinary tract in non-infected subjects. Specifically, HD5 is expressed throughout the urothelium of the lower urinary tract and in the collecting tubules of the kidney. With infection, HD5 expression increases in the kidney and levels become detectable in the urine. To our knowledge, our findings represent the first to quantitate HD5 expression and production in the human kidney. Moreover, this is the first report to detect the presence of HD5 in infected urine samples. Our results suggest that HD5 may have an important role in maintaining urinary tract sterility

Healthcare Staff Wellbeing, Burnout, and Patient Safety: A Systematic Review

Objective To determine whether there is an association between healthcare professionals’ wellbeing and burnout, with patient safety. Design Systematic research review. Data Sources PsychInfo (1806 to July 2015), Medline (1946 to July 2015), Embase (1947 to July 2015) and Scopus (1823 to July 2015) were searched, along with reference lists of eligible articles. Eligibility Criteria for Selecting Studies Quantitative, empirical studies that included i) either a measure of wellbeing or burnout, and ii) patient safety, in healthcare staff populations. Results Forty-six studies were identified. Sixteen out of the 27 studies that measured wellbeing found a significant correlation between poor wellbeing and worse patient safety, with six additional studies finding an association with some but not all scales used, and one study finding a significant association but in the opposite direction to the majority of studies. Twenty-one out of the 30 studies that measured burnout found a significant association between burnout and patient safety, whilst a further four studies found an association between one or more (but not all) subscales of the burnout measures employed, and patient safety. Conclusions Poor wellbeing and moderate to high levels of burnout are associated, in the majority of studies reviewed, with poor patient safety outcomes such as medical errors, however the lack of prospective studies reduces the ability to determine causality. Further prospective studies, research in primary care, conducted within the UK, and a clearer definition of healthcare staff wellbeing are needed. Implications This review illustrates the need for healthcare organisations to consider improving employees’ mental health as well as creating safer work environments when planning interventions to improve patient safety

A trait-based framework for assessing the vulnerability of marine species to human impacts

Marine species and ecosystems are widely affected by anthropogenic stressors, ranging from pollution and fishing to climate change. Comprehensive assessments of how species and ecosystems are impacted by anthropogenic stressors are critical for guiding conservation and management investments. Previous global risk or vulnerability assessments have focused on marine habitats, or on limited taxa or specific regions. However, information about the susceptibility of marine species across a range of taxa to different stressors everywhere is required to predict how marine biodiversity will respond to human pressures. We present a novel framework that uses life-history traits to assess species' vulnerability to a stressor, which we compare across more than 44,000 species from 12 taxonomic groups (classes). Using expert elicitation and literature review, we assessed every combination of each of 42 traits and 22 anthropogenic stressors to calculate each species' or representative species group's sensitivity and adaptive capacity to stressors, and then used these assessments to derive their overall relative vulnerability. The stressors with the greatest potential impact were related to biomass removal (e.g., fisheries), pollution, and climate change. The taxa with the highest vulnerabilities across the range of stressors were mollusks, corals, and echinoderms, while elasmobranchs had the highest vulnerability to fishing-related stressors. Traits likely to confer vulnerability to climate change stressors were related to the presence of calcium carbonate structures, and whether a species exists across the interface of marine, terrestrial, and atmospheric realms. Traits likely to confer vulnerability to pollution stressors were related to planktonic state, organism size, and respiration. Such a replicable, broadly applicable method is useful for informing ocean conservation and management decisions at a range of scales, and the framework is amenable to further testing and improvement. Our framework for assessing the vulnerability of marine species is the first critical step toward generating cumulative human impact maps based on comprehensive assessments of species, rather than habitats

Complete Genome Sequence of Treponema paraluiscuniculi, Strain Cuniculi A: The Loss of Infectivity to Humans Is Associated with Genome Decay

Treponema paraluiscuniculi is the causative agent of rabbit venereal spirochetosis. It is not infectious to humans, although its genome structure is very closely related to other pathogenic Treponema species including Treponema pallidum subspecies pallidum, the etiological agent of syphilis. In this study, the genome sequence of Treponema paraluiscuniculi, strain Cuniculi A, was determined by a combination of several high-throughput sequencing strategies. Whereas the overall size (1,133,390 bp), arrangement, and gene content of the Cuniculi A genome closely resembled those of the T. pallidum genome, the T. paraluiscuniculi genome contained a markedly higher number of pseudogenes and gene fragments (51). In addition to pseudogenes, 33 divergent genes were also found in the T. paraluiscuniculi genome. A set of 32 (out of 84) affected genes encoded proteins of known or predicted function in the Nichols genome. These proteins included virulence factors, gene regulators and components of DNA repair and recombination. The majority (52 or 61.9%) of the Cuniculi A pseudogenes and divergent genes were of unknown function. Our results indicate that T. paraluiscuniculi has evolved from a T. pallidum-like ancestor and adapted to a specialized host-associated niche (rabbits) during loss of infectivity to humans. The genes that are inactivated or altered in T. paraluiscuniculi are candidates for virulence factors important in the infectivity and pathogenesis of T. pallidum subspecies

Neutralization Serotyping of BK Polyomavirus Infection in Kidney Transplant Recipients

BK polyomavirus (BKV or BKPyV) associated nephropathy affects up to 10% of kidney transplant recipients (KTRs). BKV isolates are categorized into four genotypes. It is currently unclear whether the four genotypes are also serotypes. To address this issue, we developed high-throughput serological assays based on antibody-mediated neutralization of BKV genotype I and IV reporter vectors (pseudoviruses). Neutralization-based testing of sera from mice immunized with BKV-I or BKV-IV virus-like particles (VLPs) or sera from naturally infected human subjects revealed that BKV-I specific serum antibodies are poorly neutralizing against BKV-IV and vice versa. The fact that BKV-I and BKV-IV are distinct serotypes was less evident in traditional VLP-based ELISAs. BKV-I and BKV-IV neutralization assays were used to examine BKV type-specific neutralizing antibody responses in KTRs at various time points after transplantation. At study entry, sera from 5% and 49% of KTRs showed no detectable neutralizing activity for BKV-I or BKV-IV neutralization, respectively. By one year after transplantation, all KTRs were neutralization seropositive for BKV-I, and 43% of the initially BKV-IV seronegative subjects showed evidence of acute seroconversion for BKV-IV neutralization. The results suggest a model in which BKV-IV-specific seroconversion reflects a de novo BKV-IV infection in KTRs who initially lack protective antibody responses capable of neutralizing genotype IV BKVs. If this model is correct, it suggests that pre-vaccinating prospective KTRs with a multivalent VLP-based vaccine against all BKV serotypes, or administration of BKV-neutralizing antibodies, might offer protection against graft loss or dysfunction due to BKV associated nephropathy

Insight into the Mechanisms of Adenovirus Capsid Disassembly from Studies of Defensin Neutralization

Defensins are effectors of the innate immune response with potent antibacterial activity. Their role in antiviral immunity, particularly for non-enveloped viruses, is poorly understood. We recently found that human alpha-defensins inhibit human adenovirus (HAdV) by preventing virus uncoating and release of the endosomalytic protein VI during cell entry. Consequently, AdV remains trapped in the endosomal/lysosomal pathway rather than trafficking to the nucleus. To gain insight into the mechanism of defensin-mediated neutralization, we analyzed the specificity of the AdV-defensin interaction. Sensitivity to alpha-defensin neutralization is a common feature of HAdV species A, B1, B2, C, and E, whereas species D and F are resistant. Thousands of defensin molecules bind with low micromolar affinity to a sensitive serotype, but only a low level of binding is observed to resistant serotypes. Neutralization is dependent upon a correctly folded defensin molecule, suggesting that specific molecular interactions occur with the virion. CryoEM structural studies and protein sequence analysis led to a hypothesis that neutralization determinants are located in a region spanning the fiber and penton base proteins. This model was supported by infectivity studies using virus chimeras comprised of capsid proteins from sensitive and resistant serotypes. These findings suggest a mechanism in which defensin binding to critical sites on the AdV capsid prevents vertex removal and thereby blocks subsequent steps in uncoating that are required for release of protein VI and endosomalysis during infection. In addition to informing the mechanism of defensin-mediated neutralization of a non-enveloped virus, these studies provide insight into the mechanism of AdV uncoating and suggest new strategies to disrupt this process and inhibit infection